Shadow Alliances and The New Chessboard

Unknown Speaker

Alright, welcome back to The New Sentinel—where we trade illusions for intel and call the chessboard as we see it. Vinny Morelli here, and as always, sitting across the digital table, Chijioke Eze. You good, chief?

Chijioke Eze

I'm well, Vinny. My friend, you know the saying—“A well-fed man does not fight, but a hungry one will deal.” That’s how it goes in the field and at the summit, eh?

Unknown Speaker

That’s the truth, brother. Look, let’s start where the action never stops: U.S. alliances. Now, I hear folks saying “Oh, America and Israel, thick as thieves. Saudi and the U.S., best buddies.” Nah. That’s fairy tale stuff—they’re not writing each other love notes under the desk at the United Nations. These days, it’s all deals, all leverage. If you ain’t bringing something to the table, you’re on the menu. Let’s take Israel. Trump and Bibi? That’s not about loyalty. That’s cash—$3.8 billion in aid just as a baseline, then you get these emergency arms suddenly flooding in after Gaza blew up again.

Chijioke Eze

And the real action’s always off the books. You check the reports—covert U.S. support gave Israeli commandos an extra set of muscles facing Iran’s proxies. Secret drone strikes, special forces training—nobody’s doing a press release about that. And Saudi Arabia? America’s got them locked up with these enormous arms deals and a handshake over oil price stability. But even that’s on a knife’s edge. Saudi’s getting cozy with Iran because China says so—so here comes U.S. cyber teams in the shadows, helping defend Saudi oil from Iranian hackers. All smiles at the summit, but behind the scenes, it’s all who-you-know and what-you-got.

Unknown Speaker

Here’s how you know it’s transactional: The minute Saudi starts drifting to BRICS, or India wants to talk tariffs, Trump leans straight in—threats, incentives, backdoor deals. Remember the India-Quad deal? Not about love, all about China, leverage, and who controls the chips. Same with the Greek tragedy unfolding in Europe. I mean, the U.S. will sell you arms, share a little intel—so long as you’re singing from the right hymn sheet. Otherwise, you’re getting a tariff or a cold shoulder. Nobody’s safe, nobody’s special. Power respects power.

Chijioke Eze

You remind me, Vinny, of something from my days in uniform back home. Had a joint op once—supposed to team up with an “ally” we thought unreliable, but, ah, plans changed! The real enemy started circling, and let me tell you, nothing binds two units quicker than a bigger threat. That “ally” pulled us out of a fire, then we never saw him again. Sometimes, your best friend is just your least dangerous enemy for that day. Countries move the same way—yesterday’s favor is today’s leverage and tomorrow’s distant memory.

Unknown Speaker

That’s the game, Chijioke. Never outshine the capo, and never mistake a handshake for blood. In geopolitics, like the street, you’re only loyal as your last favor. Let’s roll on, look at what happens when those handshakes start to crack—when the guy across the table brings a gun instead of a gift.

Chijioke Eze

Yes, let’s go there. If allies are complicated, adversaries are another beast. In 2025, the U.S. is surrounded—China, Russia, Iran, North Korea. Every one of them, a different style enemy. And it’s not waving flags from the rooftops, it’s sneaking through the wires, dodging satellites, pulling strings. Take China and those digital skirmishes—2024 saw U.S. and Chinese hackers trading shots like boxers in the dark, whole campaigns no one on the street ever hears about. And those spy balloons? Some of them ‘balloons’ were drones, Vinny. Shot down before they ever made it to TikTok.

Unknown Speaker

Espionage ain’t new, but the scale? Now it feels like everyone’s got a hand in your pocket. U.S. and Russia are playing chess with live ammo—Ukraine gets quiet arms shipments, partisans trained in the woods, and meanwhile, public’s distracted by headlines about hundred-billion aid packages. In reality, that’s just the opener. Trump calls Putin on a hotline again—so what? That’s the appearance of civility covering a yard full of knives. And North Korea? Frozen, but “frozen” here just means Kim’s busy reloading. Missiles everywhere, but U.S. cyber teams are in there too, playing ghost in the machine.

Chijioke Eze

Let me argue, Vinny—the danger’s in assuming you know the rules. In the field, when two lions stalk each other, one’s always pretending to sleep. With Iran, it’s proxy fights and sabotage—the U.S. and Israel sabotaged Iranian nuclear centrifuges, just like Stuxnet, only nobody gets to brag. Those backchannel talks, even Oman’s involved now, are just as much war as missile strikes. So, people imagine war as tanks rolling—nah. The modern fight is invisible, and the pieces move by code and money, not just firepower.

Unknown Speaker

This is where Machiavelli gets his due. “It is better to be feared than loved.” You want Russia to blink, you make ‘em believe the next move could be their last. Trump’s playing chess, sure, but this ain’t your grandmother’s set—here, every pawn and every bishop is expendable. And—look, if you think any relationship in this business is sentimental, go back and listen to last month’s episode when we dissected power games in the shutdown. Power may dress up for the cameras, but backstage, it carries a knife and never buys its own drinks. The only law is leverage, and the only currency is risk.

Chijioke Eze

Now, this right here keeps even the big generals—maybe even Trump—awake at night. The U.S. map of threats, it’s not just China and Russia sitting pretty at the top. You’ve got this tangle of religious extremism, ideological groups, and wildcat networks—all trying to rewrite the rules. The 2025 threat matrix? Nation-states like China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, all high alert. But don't forget, non-state—Sunni jihadists, Shia militias, far-right Christian extremists—they’re acute dangers too. I’m telling you, even in Nigeria, you see the same thing. Some threats don’t wear uniforms.

Unknown Speaker

Exactly. IC calls ‘em “acute,” for a reason. 70% of plots this past year linked to ISIS or al-Qa’ida wannabes—they pivot, use online radicalization, go for soft targets like subways. And the state-backed stuff? Iran’s Shia proxies have hit U.S. bases more than a hundred times in twelve months. Christian far-right in the U.S.—medium threat, but you see echoes of January 6th and the lone-wolf stuff clogging up fuse boxes all over domestic intelligence. It’s not a single front—it’s a Hydra. Cut off one head, two more pop up, usually with a VPN and a GoFundMe.

Chijioke Eze

Ha, true! And what does the intelligence community do? Layer after layer: Countering Violent Extremism programs, cyber resilience, sanctions, training allies, you name it. Still, new threats demand new moves. There’s a saying from home: “A monkey that has seen war learns not to dance at the sound of the drum.” In these times, sometimes all the fancy intelligence tools, all the cyber shields—sometimes you just need to outthink the old enemy in a new way. That part is uncomfortable, but necessary.

Unknown Speaker

Uncomfortable’s the only way forward. ‘Cause America’s still got options: expand those CVE efforts, ramp up cyber defenses, squeeze the pipeline for extremist cash. I mean, you gotta adapt like you’re in the jungle—quiet, ruthless, but always two moves ahead. We’re living in a world where the chessboard changes every night, and if you can’t keep up, you wake up as a story on a podcast like this one.